Manchester United’s calendar year has ended with disappointment after a 1-1 draw with Wolves. Let’s try and place everything in context.
Once again, Manchester United fans in attendance at Old Trafford went home disappointed. That is now four games in the last five that the Red Devils have failed to win.
And when you consider that three of those five opponents (Wolves, West Ham and Bournemouth) rank in the bottom six in the Premier League, it’s immensely disappointing.
But with 19 games played, we can take a more well-rounded view than simply reacting to this latest draw and run of form.
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At the time of writing, United are in sixth place in the Premier League, and that is a big improvement on last season’s situation. After 19 games in 2024/25, Manchester United were in 14th place in the table.
Instead of an aimless Premier League campaign in the second half of the season, United actually have something to fight for.
Don’t laugh, Manchester United are in the mix for the Champions League places.
The race for the Champions League
Traditionally it has been the top four finishers in the Premier League that qualify for the Champions League, and right now, those are the only guaranteed slots.
The draw against Wolves means United have lost ground on fourth-placed Liverpool, but this can easily be recovered.
We asked Google’s AI expert how likely it is that Manchester United finish in the top four places. Pooling in data from statistical modelling and odds, the results are interesting.
It is assessed that Manchester United have a 30.7 per cent chance of landing a top four place. Liverpool’s chances by contrast are 65.7 per cent, with Chelsea’s at 64.5 per cent.
These numbers take into account Manchester United’s remaining strength of fixtures, and inconsistent results so far this season. In the last five games, the team has managed only six points.
One advantage in United’s favour is that Liverpool and Chelsea are both in European competition, and in Chelsea’s case, the Carabao Cup, and the volume of games could work against them.
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The extra-margins, fifth place could qualify
It is possible that five or even six teams could qualify for the Champions League next season.
The additional fifth spot will be calculated based on the performance of English teams in the Champions League this season. And on current basis, this is on track.
The sixth spot would come into play if an English team won the Champions League or Europa League, while finishing outside the top five, like Tottenham last season.
The statistical modelling shows that with top five places qualifying for the Champions League, Manchester United’s chances increase from 30.7 per cent to 37 per cent.
This means it is still considered that United are less likely than more likely to finish in the top five, but it is within reach.
It is estimated that 57 points could secure a top five place, and United are tracking to finish narrowly short.
There need to be some gains. A statistically improbable win over City or Arsenal in January, even both, could flip the odds in United’s favour.
Still, it is a sign of improvement that United are even in the mix right now. Just to be talking about direct Champions League qualification shows how open the league is, and how Ruben Amorim‘s side must start being ruthless and taking advantage.
from United In Focus https://ift.tt/H1SBPIJ