Manchester United face an uphill battle to qualify for the Champions League knockout rounds after a wildly unpredictable campaign.
When you win just one game from five group matches, and lose three of them, you would expect to already be eliminated.
Well, after a 3-3 draw away at Galatasaray, Manchester United are down – but not quite out, yet.
There is still a chance Manchester United qualify for the Champions League knockout rounds, despite ranking bottom of the group heading into Matchday 6 in December.
What Manchester United need to qualify
Manchester United need to two results to go in our favour in order to qualify for the Champions League last 16.
- Beat Bayern Munich at Old Trafford
- Copenhagen v Galatasaray must end in a draw
This is a very specific set of circumstances, but there is hope. Bayern have already qualified top of the group and may rotate, or play with less intensity.
Copenhagen and Galatasaray did draw their opening group game 2-2. It could be another rollercoaster of a night, one way or another.
Statistical probability
The statistical projection is not in Manchester United’s favour. There is a slim chance of progression, according to the numbers.
An Opta led data forecast from The Analyst has calculated the probability of Manchester United finishing in second place.
- 6 per cent
Yes, just a six per cent chance Manchester United qualify. The prospects of finishing either third or fourth is weighted towards a bottom placed finish.
It is calculated to be a 27.3 per cent chance Manchester United finish third and qualify for the Europa League.
While perhaps mercifully, it is a 66.3 per cent probability Manchester United end up bottom of the group and exit Europe entirely.
This might end up being better in the bigger picture. More time on the training ground, and a better focus on a strong Premier League finish.
Qualifying for the last 16 may not be all it’s cracked up to be either. Based on what we have seen in the competition so far, United do not stand much chance at all of winning the Champions League, despite Raphael Varane’s early prediction that we could.
from United In Focus https://ift.tt/1Zhpxou