Manchester United will be without Casemiro to face Aston Villa, and this sets up a worrying situation for Ruben Amorim.
It is perhaps a miracle that it took Casemiro until mid-December to pick up his fifth yellow card of the season.
The Brazilian always plays like he is on the verge of a booking, and his suspension was eventually inevitable.
However, for it to come away at Aston Villa just as three first team stars head to AFCON, is particularly unfortunate timing.
Add in the injuries to Matthijs de Ligt and Harry Maguire, and it’s clear United face an uphill battle, against a team that has just won nine matches in a row.
Casemiro is suspended vs Aston Villa 🚫
It's the worst possible timing! Who should replace him?
Manchester United’s record without Casemiro
Manchester United have been without Casemiro in two games in 2025/26, the 3-0 loss at Manchester City, and the 3-1 defeat to Brentford.
We expanded this small sample size to include data from the 2024/25 season, with Casemiro missing 20 matches in all competitions for United.
Data from Sofascore shows how Manchester United have struggled when the Brazilian has not been in the team.
- United accrue an average of just 0.9 points per game without Casemiro, vs 1.67 with him
United also score more goals (1.86 per game vs 1.25) when Casemiro is in the team than when they are without him.
But most worryingly, United concede an average of 2.0 goals per game without Casemiro, and just 1.25 when he is in the team.
It is a stark and noticeable performance gap. United have a 10% clean sheet ratio without Casemiro, and a 22.8% rate when he is in the team.
Opportunity awaits for Casemiro replacement
Ruben Amorim must choose between Kobbie Mainoo or Manuel Ugarte. Both players are in need of game time, and enter the team in a challenging situation, against a very tough, confident side.
Ugarte might be better suited for this trickier away fixture, but Mainoo is the more popular pick. He has not had a single start all season.
Casemiro will return to face Newcastle on Boxing Day – but there is a real opportunity for whoever replaces him to stake their claim for further opportunities.
With Casemiro suspended, who should start vs Aston Villa?
Kobbie Mainoo or Manuel Ugarte?
Manuel Ugarte was signed from Paris Saint-Germain in 2024, with the view that he would be Casemiro’s long-term replacement.
But the data demonstrates that United look better with Casemiro, and weaker without him.
This weekend’s fixture at Villa Park provides a tough challenge for whoever steps in. It is in some ways an unenviable task.
But if they can get it right, it is the perfect way to reset the narrative and disprove United’s reliance on Casemiro.
from United In Focus https://ift.tt/cPaGFoR